Bloomberg Leaves the GOP

Posted on June 19, 2007

Mayor Michael Bloomberg sent shockwaves through the political spectrum by changing his party affiliation from Republican to Independent. If Bloomberg runs as a viable Independent candidate, it's unclear which party he would pull votes from. Bloomberg is liked by moderate Democrats, businesspeople and women. He will definitely give Rudy Guiliani and Hillary Clinton a run for their money with moderate voters.

What kind of effect a Bloomberg Independent candidacy will have depends a great deal on who gets the Republican and Democratic nominations. If Hillary is nominated, Bloomberg is a problem for her, because their positions on most subjects are similar. If Fred Thompson is the Republican nominee, Bloomberg will offer a more moderate alternative to Republican voters.

Voters who like Barack Obama because he's "new and different" could easily turn to Mayor Bloomberg -- he's certainly "new and different" to voters outside New York. We don't recall another billionaire presidential candidate who was a Democrat, then a Republican, and then an Independent. He also could spend several hundred million dollars of his own money if he feels like it; he could enter the race later than other candidates and still be viable.

It's possible we could have three New Yorkers running for president: Senator Clinton, Mayor Guiliani and Mayor Bloomberg. Who would carry New York State then? And how would that play in the Heartland? Hillary was born and raised in Illinois and spent many years as the first lady of Arkansas; she might have the edge there. Remember the disastrous Rudy Guiliani campaign stop in rural American? Enough said.

If he decides to run, Michael Bloomberg is destined to be either the Ralph Nader or the Ross Perot of 2008. And that has quite a few candidates very nervous.