Lebanon Complications: Don't Forget Hezbollah
Posted on March 6, 2005
The addition of Saudi Arabia to the list of countries that has called upon Syria to finally withdraw its troops from Lebanon is significant; it seems that Syria will do just that, starting Monday. But what is going to happen when they do leave? Will democracy really break out? Will the new government love or hate America? It's hard to tell, especially when no one knows what arguably the most powerful faction in the country--Hezbollah--is going to do. Mitchell Prothero has an excellent article in Salon today, entitled "Lebanon's X factor: Hezbollah", which clearly lays out the recent history of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and why the situation is a lot more complicated than cursory news reports make it out to be, especially since the 900 pound gorilla in the Lebanese political room, Hezbollah, has sat this fight out and is just waiting its turn to arm wrestle for power.
For all of its power, however, Hezbollah remains heavily funded by and deeply tied to Iran and Syria, which employ it as a key proxy force in their fight against Israel. (Syria is loath to give up this strategic military asset as long as its long-standing demand that Israel return the Golan Heights, seized in the 1967 war, has not been resolved.) Accordingly, Hezbollah immediately condemned last year's United Nations Resolution 1559, which demands Syrian withdrawal and the disarming of Hezbollah's very potent military force. France joined the United States in supporting 1559, but it has broken with Washington over U.S. demands that Europe place Hezbollah on the list of terrorist groups.This all makes for a very tricky diplomatic sitation, to say the least. An emboldened Shiite fundamentalist regime with heavy ties to Iran is not in America's best interests. Lebanon is an unusual Middle East country with its large Christian population, which made up at least half the country when the French left in 1932. Now, they make up approximately 30% of the population, the rest being Muslim, both Sunni and Shia.
The Lebanese constitution requires that power be shared between a Christian president, a Sunni prime minister, and a Shiite speaker of the Assembly. After the last civil war, the powers of the president were substantially reduced while the power of the National Assembly was increased. To assume that these diverse groups can quickly form a stable democratic government after the May elections seems somewhat overly optimistic. But it would certainly be nice.