October Surprise: Osama bin Laden Takes the Stage

Posted on October 29, 2004

Despite the U.S. State Department's best efforts to convince the government of Qatar to clamp down on al-Jazeera, the arab news network aired a fourteen minute tape from terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden. U.S. news networks quickly followed suit, providing excerpts and transcripts for American viewers as a sort of extra Halloween treat.

One of President Bush's favorite stump speech lines is that "al Qaeda hates us because of our freedom." Osama riduculed that explanation of the terrorists' aims, saying: "free people don't let go of their security -- contrary to Bush's claims that we hate freedom. He should tell us why we didn't hit Sweden, for instance. It's known that those who hate freedom don't have dignified souls, like the 19 who were blessed. But we fought you because we are free people, we don't sleep on our oppression. We want to regain the freedom of our Muslim nation." Bin Laden then went on to take full responsibility for 9/11, and described how the idea came to him when the U.S. helped Israel bomb Beirut, Lebanon in 1982, and he watched towers fall and women and children die. He also mentioned the Palestinian people. Basically, he justified his actions as retaliation for the killings of Muslims around the world.

Of course, what Osama doesn't seem to understand is that American foreign policy (and Americans' memories) are like an Etch-a-Sketch; every four years we shake the slate clean and start over again, as if nothing had gone before. "Beirut in 1982??" most Americans will ask, scratching their heads, "what the hell does that have to do with flying two planes into the Twin Towers in 2001?" And that just points up one of the many differences between our two cultures. "Though I have to wait 1000 years, I will have my revenge" is an old saying in Osama's part of the world. Blood feuds last lifetimes. Americans, by contrast, can barely remember Paris Hilton's last sex tape. And polls show that most Americans are so ignorant of geography and current events that they probably couldn't even find Beirut on a map.

We haven't heard from Osama in quite a while and this new tape is puzzling terror experts for a number of reasons. Osama looks fit, well-rested and has the full use of both of his hands (in prior tapes, it appeared that he couldn't move his left arm at all). He also speaks calmly, and reads from prepared remarks as he stands at an American-style podium, with his hands firmly on the lectern. One wonders if he watched the presidential debates. He delivers his speech in common Arabic, using none of the flowery, religous language he has used before. He addresses the American people directly, telling us that he will share how we can avoid another tragedy and that our safety is not in the hands of President Bush, Senator Kerry or even al-Qaeda, but in our hands -- and presumably in those who conduct America's foreign policy. What is profoundly odd about the tape is the way Osama delivers his lines: like a politician or diplomat addressing the U.N. He speaks calmly and rationally, as he describes his justification for murdering 3,000 innocent people. He has the air of wanting to open a diplomatic dialogue with the American people. No ranting, no raving, nothing. I personally found it much scarier than the other tape that came out this week in which a turbaned guy talked about the streets running with blood, there being so many bodies that we wouldn't be able to count our dead etc. etc. But Osama sounded clear and rational, while saying irrational and evil things.

It is unclear right now what this October surprise means for the election. It isn't helpful for Bush to have Osama, alive and well, show up on tape and ridicule Bush's actions on 9/11. Osama tasked Bush for reading "My Pet Goat" to schoolchildren while leaving "50,000 of his citizens in both towers to face the horrors by themselves when they most needed him." It also galling to have the admitted architect of the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil laughing at us, while we sit in the quagmire of Iraq with no exit strategy or benefit to the U.S. in sight. I mean, 1,000 troops are dead, over 7,000 are injured and yet the perpetrator of the crime has not been punished. Bush seemed to grasp this fact immediately, hopefully predicting that "Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this."

In response to the tape, Senator Kerry said, "Let me make it clear, crystal clear: As Americans, we are absolutely united in our determination to hunt down and destroy Osama bin Laden and the terrorists. They are barbarians. And I will stop at absolutely nothing to hunt down, capture or kill the terrorists wherever they are, whatever it takes, period."

Kerry sounded strong and the tape may hurt Bush. On the other hand, Bush's poll numbers are better than Kerry's on the terrorism issue and a new tape, regardless of the substance, may help Bush. I think it will be a wash and isn't going to help either candidate. But we'll see on Tuesday.