Polls Puzzle as Super Tuesday Looms

Posted on February 4, 2008

Super Tuesday is tomorrow and the polls are looking pretty strange, especially on the Democratic side. In fact, they're all over the place. Several polls show Obama closing in on Hillary Clinton in California with a virtual tie, although a new Survey USA poll has her up by 12 and a new Zogby has Obama up by four (see all the latest California polls here). See all the most recent polls here.

Obama has definitely gotten a bounce in the past week, but the internals of most of the polls show an unusually high number of undecided voters, which has to be some kind of a first. Are there really that many Democrats who still haven't made up their minds between Clinton and Obama? Turnout will be key. If the women and Latino groups show up to vote in large numbers tomorrow, Clinton wins California. Her big state strategy will pay off and I think she will win the popular vote and the delegate count tomorrow. The question is by how much. It's not mathematically possible for either candidate to wrap up the nomination tomorrow, so we're in for a lot more campaigning.

On the Republican side, it seems clear that McCain is going to be pretty happy tomorrow night. Although according to the Secretary of State we may not know who won California until Wednesday, which is going to make for a pretty stressful evening for the campaigns (especially the Obama and Clinton campaigns). Mitt Romney was looking good in California in some polls, so the upset of the day would be a win for him there. That would be huge. Coming off his win in Maine, that would give him some sorely needed Mittmentum. But Huckabee is the real spoiler for Romney: he's racking up votes from Evangelicals and they like him in the South.

Without some surprises tomorrow, McCain will be heading towards a coronation. But, as the Patriots found out Sunday, it's not over till it's over.